The war in Ukraine is about to complete its first year, amid the absence of any horizon for a political solution between Kyiv and Moscow, while American experts say that Washington must deal with the crisis, according to a “cautious approach”, so that the conflict does not descend into a broader confrontation between Russia and NATO.
Military aid flowed generously to Ukraine over the past year, and Kyiv obtained “Javelin” and “howitzer” missiles, drones, attack vehicles, anti-aircraft systems and “Haimers”, while Berlin and Washington recently agreed to supply “Leopard 2” and “Abrams” tanks. M One”.
Writer Ishan Tharoor believes, in an article in the New York Times, that Kyiv has been asking for more at every stage of the crisis, while the West has been responding, time after time, even if it did not do as quickly as the Ukrainians wanted.
The analysis concludes with the idea that “You have sufficiently weakened Russia, and if you proceed towards further weakening, the matter may lead to the opposite result, leading to a confrontation between Moscow and NATO.”
The writer relies on a report issued by a prestigious think tank in Washington, which pointed out to remarkable matters in the current crisis, and warned of the consequences of mistakes that Washington might make.
The report was issued by the Rand Cobb Center for Studies, which dates back to 1948 and includes academics who are described as elite researchers, and whose opinions are widely listened to.
Advice from American experts to their officials: Do not make these mistakes!
- The continuation of the current military support for Ukraine threatens to slide into a dangerous situation, especially if the war is prolonged, then a direct collision may occur between Moscow and NATO.
- The prolongation of the conflict may push the Kremlin to spread and use nuclear weapons, and this confirms the need to encourage the Western parties to sit at the negotiating table.
- The war in Ukraine is not devoid of benefits for Washington, as it is an opportunity to consolidate its leadership in the world, amid curtailing the Russian role that has grown years ago.
- There is no party in this war that can win and win it, that is, neither the Ukrainians, nor the Russians themselves.
- Neither Moscow nor Kyiv can achieve the absolute victory they want and seek.
- Both countries are optimistic about the prospect of winning the war in the long term, but they are also pessimistic about what comes after a cease-fire or a fragile peace.
- Regardless of the promises, the horizon of Western military aid seems unclear, because public opinion in many countries seems dissatisfied with the provision of generous and exorbitant aid from its public money.
- A Pew poll, for example, revealed that a growing number of Americans think their country is giving Ukraine too much support.
- The length of the war means an increase in the suffering of the Ukrainians, who also pay the bill with their lives and stability.
- Ukrainian officials are trying to portray Russia’s nuclear threat as a non-serious threat, but the report finds that Moscow has already done so if it senses what it sees as an existential threat.
It is enough!
- The report believes that the losses inflicted by the West on Russia so far may be sufficient, and therefore, it is better for efforts to weaken Moscow to stop at the current level.
- In the event that Russia collapses to greater levels of weakness, according to the report, this may not remain in the interest of the United States, because things are now different from what they were at the beginning of the war.
- Russia may need years to recover its military and economic health, after all the damage it suffered after the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis.
- Washington should present a roadmap to Russia regarding a possible timetable for easing sanctions in case it takes initiatives towards a settlement and reverses the current approach.
Hefty price tag for limited gains
- Researcher Christopher, Director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, offers his view of the war in The Economist, saying:
- In the event that the war is frozen on the current front lines, the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, will have paid a very high price for limited gains.
- Russian forces showed their incompetence before the eyes of the world, and Moscow became an “outcast”, and its relations with Europe were destroyed, and the effect may extend for several centuries.
- The sanctions imposed will slow down Russia’s economy in the coming years, even if the Kremlin offers moderate concessions in the midst of the current war.
The interests of Ukraine and the interests of Washington
The report acknowledges the need for the West to support Ukraine, but warns of a complete mismatch between Washington’s interests and those of Kyiv.
This view means that the Ukrainians are seeking what serves their interests, while the Americans must take into account other things that Kyiv does not necessarily consider, such as the war not descending into a more comprehensive confrontation between Russia and NATO.
Source: Sky News